NOAA predicts warmer than normal fall in long-range forecast

BOSTON — The seasonal outlook came out recently from NOAA. One map shows the temperatures expected compared to normal from August through October. If you like it warm, this looks promising! Above normal temperatures are forecast along the east coast, including all of New England.

The precipitation map shows what is termed “equal chances” of above or below normal rainfall. Given a warmer than normal forecast, I’d feel more confident if it was to be drier than normal, too. Wet ground can lead to more clouds and cooler temperatures.

NOAA uses computer models as the main prediction tool when doing seasonal outlooks. They also look at trends in the climate data going back about three decades as well as the state of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). This year, ENSO looks neutral. These are things that climatologists look at while meteorologists, like our Boston 25 StormTracker Weather team, forecast short term and more specifically. That’s why I don’t give long-term forecasts.

I’m not a fan of this outlook, because I like the autumn cool for football season. How about you?

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