Baseball's annual winter meetings began Sunday with the monumental free-agent signing of Juan Soto by the New York Mets and concluded Wednesday with Boston's blockbuster trade to acquire ace left-hander Garrett Crochet from the Chicago White Sox. After a busy week across the industry, it's clear that the free-agent and trade markets have been fully activated — and more consequential transactions are most certainly on deck.
The trade market and the free-agent market are inherently intertwined, with completed signings and swaps constantly forcing teams to reevaluate their paths forward as they attempt to address the biggest holes on their rosters. When top talent is available at a certain position via both trade and free agency, clubs must decide whether they'd prefer to acquire talent by offering the biggest and best contract or the most attractive collection of young talent in a trade. And one team's willingness to go the monetary route — the Yankees securing Max Fried with the largest free-agent deal ever given to a left-handed pitcher, for example — can influence another's urgency to reel in a pitcher such as Crochet with a huge prospect package.
We've already seen this dynamic play out at the top of the starting pitching market, and the third-base market could unfold in a similar manner in the coming weeks. With Willy Adames off the board, having signed with the Giants, Alex Bregman is far and away the premier free-agent infielder available. At the same time, it has become increasingly clear in recent weeks — and was much discussed at the winter meetings — that another well-known third baseman might also be attainable for teams in search of a meaningful infield upgrade: Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado.
Early in the offseason, St. Louis indicated a willingness to trade its three most prominent veterans — Arenado, Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras — and use 2025 as a transition year to reset the roster and get a better sense for which young players will be part of the team's core for the long haul. But with all three having no-trade clauses in their contracts, such deals require permission from the players. And with Gray and Contreras reportedly less inclined to be dealt, Arenado — whose agent, Joel Wolfe, has expressed his client's preference to be traded to a contending team — has emerged as the Cardinals vet most likely to be moved this winter. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has even publicly declared his intention to deal the 10-time Gold Glove winner.
If Bregman and his agent, Scott Boras, are seeking a deal in excess of the seven-year, $182 million pact Adames received from San Francisco, Arenado — who is owed $74M over the next three seasons — emerges as a cost-efficient alternative. Of course, it’s not nearly as simple as one player costing more than the other. At this stage of their careers, Bregman is clearly the superior player. And given Arenado’s no-trade clause, not just any team is going to be able to call up the Cardinals and get a deal done.
But before a team even broaches the possibility of whether Arenado would waive his no-trade clause for them, they must answer a simpler question: How good is this guy, anyway? Because even though he requires a smaller financial outlay than Bregman, committing more than $20 million annually for three more years to a soon-to-be-34-year-old third baseman coming off the worst full season of his career is not a decision to be made lightly.
For a decade following his debut with the Rockies in 2013, Arenado’s all-world defense and potent bat kept him comfortably in the inner circle of elite players at his position. But as his production at the plate has slipped in St. Louis over the past two years, his overall value has become that of a very good player rather than a truly excellent one.
Here are Arenado’s yearly fWAR and rank among primary third basemen in MLB, starting with his first All-Star season in 2015:
2015: 4.5 (5th)
2016: 6.0 (3rd)
2017: 5.8 (4th)
2018: 5.9 (4th)
2019: 6.1 (4th)
2020: 0.6 (26th)
2021: 4.3 (4th)
2022: 7.2 (1st)
2023: 2.7 (12th)
2024: 3.1 (10th)
Excluding the shortened 2020 season during which Arenado was injured for a stretch, the trajectory is clear: He was one of the best third basemen on the planet for a very long time, but that is no longer the case. While his defense at the hot corner remains at an exceptionally high level, Arenado’s bat appears to be trending in the wrong direction.
After a monster 2022 season in which he finished third in NL MVP voting, Arenado opened 2023 with one of the worst months of his career, posting a .582 OPS in April. His bat warmed up with the weather, hitting .295/.346/.584 with 20 homers in 74 games from the beginning of May through the end of July. But his poor early form resurfaced down the stretch, as he hit .184 with just one home run over his final 30 games before finishing the year on the injured list due to back spasms.
While there were hints of top-tier production in the middle months of 2023, 2024 offered fewer encouraging signs for Arenado offensively. Despite playing 152 games — durability has remained a hallmark of his career — Arenado’s best month was the .807 OPS he posted in August. His .646 OPS against left-handers was his worst single-season mark as a big leaguer.
Arenado's ability to put the ball in play remains well above-average — only 11 qualified hitters struck out at a lower clip than Arenado's 14.5% mark — but his overall quality of contact declined sharply in 2024. He registered career lows in hard-hit rate (31.6%; 12th percentile in MLB), barrel rate (3.2%; sixth percentile) and average exit velocity (86.3 mph; ninth percentile).
These are troubling trends. But considering his still fantastic glovework at a valuable position and his renowned work ethic and positive clubhouse reputation, Arenado will have interest from suitors.
Which teams could be in the mix for Arenado?
If Arenado is determined to be traded to a certified contender, neither defending pennant winner appears to be a realistic option. The Dodgers were rumored as a possible landing spot for the California native in trade discussions earlier in his career, but they are reportedly committed to Max Muncy at the position, and understandably so. The Yankees — who not long ago had a bad experience trading for an aging star third baseman in Josh Donaldson — do not seem especially interested and could be prioritizing a pursuit of Bregman to upgrade their infield.
But the Yankees aren't the only team chasing Bregman. The Tigers, Red Sox and Astros are all reportedly in the mix to sign the star third baseman. Any of those teams could in theory pivot to Arenado should Bregman sign elsewhere, though each faces different obstacles to a potential acquisition.
Detroit might be more willing to commit long-term to a player in Bregman who is still in his prime and has a strong connection with manager AJ Hinch, but Arenado could provide the veteran presence the Tigers’ ultra-young roster badly needs. Houston could turn to Arenado as a short-term solution at third should Bregman depart his longtime home. Neither club has been reported as a preferred destination for Arenado, but both would provide him a chance to play for a team with October aspirations.
Boston's interest in Bregman suggests a willingness to move Rafael Devers to first base, a possibility that was refuted by manager Alex Cora. It's unclear if such a significant adjustment for the current franchise player would also be made to make room for Arenado. As another option, Steve Cohen's Mets surely wouldn't be scared off by the money owed to Arenado, but they might prefer to stay young at the position, with Brett Baty as the leading candidate, and instead invest more heavily in the pitching staff.
In addition to the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox, the Phillies, Padres and Angels are three other teams that Arenado reportedly has interest in being dealt to, though none appears to be a natural fit. So while perhaps Arenado's landing spot is limited to these six teams, his no-trade clause affords him and Wolfe the ability to collaborate with the Cardinals' front office on finding a preferred destination. Other teams could emerge as viable candidates as the negotiations evolve.
The Angels — who owe nearly $80M to Anthony Rendon over the next two seasons and are coming off their ninth consecutive losing season — would not seem to satisfy Arenado’s wish to be traded to a winning situation. Philadelphia has reportedly been open to moving Alec Bohm, but such a move would need to precede an Arenado acquisition, and Philadelphia doesn’t appear to have much traction on a Bohm trade as things stand.
That Arenado has expressed a willingness to move to first if it means he can play for a contender suggests that he could land with a team with a superior option entrenched at his position, such as San Diego with Manny Machado. But it's also difficult to imagine a team seeing the value of adding Arenado as a first baseman at his current price, especially if his offensive production continues to decline — let alone a team in the Padres who aren't expected to add significant salary this winter.
An Arenado trade seems likely to happen eventually, but finding a trade partner is not as straightforward as one might assume, and Bregman’s pending decision will influence Arenado’s market one way or another. Should Arenado be dealt, a player who joined the Cardinals via trade from the wayward Rockies with the prospect of playing for a perennial contender would conclude his tenure having won fewer postseason games with St. Louis (0) than he did with Colorado (1).
Will the next chapter of Arenado’s career feature more October success? He surely hopes so. His next team will go a long way in determining that.