This year feels different for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Sure, they’re a little rough around the edges, as usual, but they’re a bit sturdier than last year’s team as the NFL enters the final stretch of the regular season before the playoffs begin.
Russell Wilson, while still a bit inconsistent, has been the veteran presence that this team needed just to improve the operation of the offense. The defense has been the driving force of their success and after their latest performance against the Cleveland Browns, the Steelers sit at 10-3 with full command of the AFC North with four games left. They still may trip up early on in the playoffs due to the randomness of football, but they’re better constructed to win a Super Bowl than in recent years past.
Their chances start with their defense, which is unequivocally one of the best in the league. According to TruMedia, the Steelers' defense ranks second in percent of drives without a first down for the offense (38%), first in turnovers per drive (18.3%), fourth expected points per drive (-0.47), fourth in expected points added per play (-0.09) and third in expected points added per dropback (-0.07). They pair a raucous front seven led by Cam Heyward and T.J. Watt with a talented secondary that has stud players like Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joey Porter Jr. With Mike Tomlin and defensive coordinator Teryl Austin pulling the strings, they've certainly been able to produce a championship-level defense — one that was even capable of neutering the Ravens' high-flying offense.
Wilson hasn’t exactly made the Steelers a consistent offense, but they are performing a bit better than when Justin Fields was the quarterback. Since Week 7, when Wilson became the starting quarterback, the Steelers rank 14th in points per drive (2.18), seventh in net yards per pass attempt (7.8), third in conversions on third-and-long (34.1%) and 12th in expected points added per dropback (0.11). They aren’t a consistent offense — they rank 20th in success rate in this stretch — but they create more explosive plays and are better in critical situations with Wilson under center. That’s enough to make them a really, really tough team to play against when their defense is on point.
Pittsburgh can clinch the AFC North title with a win over the Ravens in two weeks, locking into hosting a home game in the first round. Last year’s team slipped into the seventh seed and took a Mason Rudolph-led offense on the road to Buffalo and were simply outclassed. They also didn't have the offense to pair with their defense in 2021, when they were blown out by the Chiefs in the wild-card round in Ben Roethlisberger's final game, or in 2022, when they just missed the playoffs and alternated between then-rookie Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback.
That shouldn’t happen for this year’s team, even though they are a little rough around the edges. Their recent 24-19 loss to the Browns in Week 12 showed some of their warts (albeit in a massive snowstorm), but this is a team that should be seen as a threat to the top of the AFC.
Kansas City is likely going to hold the No. 1 seed as they paper cut their way to the playoffs, but they certainly don't appear to be the infallible team they were in the past. The Steelers have a chance, especially if they can hold their lead on the top spot in the AFC North. In a year where there are a lot of teams extremely down on their luck, this stitched-together Steelers team should be considered one that can credibly go on a run if the defense gets hot and Wilson continues to give them a cleaner offensive function.
That’s a substantial improvement from where they were a year ago, when they were pondering whether or not to bench Pickett, their former first-round pick. Their future at the quarterback position is still unknown, but in the now? They can make some noise in the postseason.