Davante Adams, New York Jet? It's the most probable outcome, but these questions must be answered first

The New York Jets’ infatuation with Las Vegas Raiders wideout Davante Adams has never been much of a secret.

From the moment the Jets acquired quarterback Aaron Rodgers in April of 2023, Adams became a priority trade target on their radar. So much so, the Jets front office began assessing the financial implications of Adams’ remaining contract with the Raiders soon after obtaining Rodgers. And by last fall's Oct. 31 trade deadline, the Jets had inquired about Adams’ availability multiple times, according to sources familiar with the two teams. Each time, the Jets were told Adams was not available, with then-Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels prioritizing wins over draft assets as he attempted to stave off a firing by owner Mark Davis. But the day after the trade deadline, McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler lost their jobs anyway, as Davis once again made sweeping changes to redirect the franchise.

All the while, the Jets watched from afar, buoyed by a belief in the team's front office that eventually, a trade route to Adams would be opened. And now it finally has been, by virtue of Adams' own request. And coincidentally, it comes right at a critical juncture of the Jets' season — facing the Minnesota Vikings in London, Buffalo Bills at home and Pittsburgh Steelers on the road — that could ultimately shape New York's outlook for the outlook the remainder of the year.

But despite those stars seeming to align, there’s plenty of complication that continues to cloud any Adams deal.

Starting with …

What is Adams’ realistic value on the trade market?

I’ve spoken to a multitude of league executives who share a similar belief: The Raiders’ bounty of a second-round pick plus an additional asset is an exorbitant reach for Adams, given his age and contract complications. The guardrails most considered realistic would be something in line with two deals:

No. 1: The asset swap between the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans for wideout Stefon Diggs. In that deal, the Bills sent Diggs plus a 2024 sixth-round pick and a 2025 fifth-round pick to Houston in exchange for the Texans’ 2025 second-round pick. Distilled into a simpler 1-for-1 vantage, the overall value in that deal was considered by most executives to be the Bills getting what amounted to a third-round pick for Diggs.

No. 2: The asset swap between the Los Angeles Chargers and Chicago Bears that sent a 2024 fourth-round pick to the Bears for wideout Keenan Allen.

If those two deals are the bookends for Adams’ value, it puts him somewhere between a third- and fourth-round pick. However, there were two noted caveats presented.

“If the Raiders are willing to eat some of his [2024] salary, that could buy a better pick or convince a team to add in some kind of performance escalator that adds another draft asset,” one NFC executive said. “Like a third-rounder in 2025 and you could agree to adding a fourth [rounder] in 2026 if the Jets make the conference title game or something like that.”

Added another NFC evaluator: “The cost depends on how desperate a franchise is to trade for him. I don’t think he’ll have a huge market with a second-round price tag. But they might get that if someone gets really desperate.”

“Everyone basically knows [the Raiders] either have to trade him or keep him the rest of the season when he doesn’t want to be there,” said an AFC general manager. “That’s not going to give [Raiders GM Tom Telesco] a lot leverage in the eyes of other teams.”

What are the realistic trade destinations for Adams?

The answer to this depends on the leverage. Technically, Adams has no real leverage to stop a trade to another team or dictate where he wants to go. But he does have one tool on the table: If he doesn’t like a potential destination, he can tell any team acquiring him that he doesn’t want to be there and won’t restructure the last two years of his contract, which are slated to pay him $36.25 million in both 2025 and 2026.

If he does that, he’s basically turning himself into a short-term rental for an acquiring team, which would likely lessen the value they’d surrender in a deal … or potentially kill it entirely. At this stage, it’s extremely unlikely any team trading for him will be willing to pay the $72.5 million he’s due in the final two years of his contract. And neither of those years is guaranteed salary, making it easy to part company with him after 2024.

With that in mind, here’s what I think about potential destinations …

New York Jets

I think this is the most probable spot for Adams and I don’t think it’s particularly close. It’s very clearly where he wants to be and the Jets and Rodgers absolutely would like to have him in the fold. The Jets also have an extra 2025 third-round pick from the Detroit Lions at their disposal, too. And although I’d normally say general manager Joe Douglas drives a hard bargain in trades and would instantly scoff at giving up a second-rounder plus more for Adams, Douglas knows his job is on the line.

There’s no use in protecting a 2025 second- or third-rounder if you won’t be around to make the picks. And the desperation factor could get pretty high for the Jets if they lose this week’s game against the Minnesota Vikings in London.

One more thing that’s worth throwing out there: An NFC executive pointed out the Haason Reddick holdout could potentially factor here, too. Reddick is burned enough on the Jets impasse that he might report to the Raiders for the rest of the 2024 season if he gets dealt. Maybe Reddick and Adams could become the core of a deal that simply offloads players who don’t want to be in their current places.

New Orleans Saints

I have no doubt that this is one of Adams’ preferred teams. As with Rodgers in New York, it would connect him with a quarterback he’s familiar with in former Raiders and Fresno State teammate Derek Carr.

Another interesting twist? Former Raiders general manager Dave Ziegler — who had a hand in acquiring Adams from the Green Bay Packers — is currently working in an advisory capacity for Saints GM Mickey Loomis. At the very least, Ziegler can provide some good inside intelligence for the Saints on an Adams trade.

The impediments that I think keeps this deal from happening? The price tag in trade assets and a wildly tight cap situation that already is going to force the Saints to restructure and cut ties with multiple players next offseason.

Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens

Both are in a similar situation to the Saints. I think Adams would agree to a trade to either if he can’t get to the Jets or Saints, but he’d have a pecking order of preference between the two. Whatever the case, both the Bills and Ravens would have to move around some money to make him fit under a tight cap this season — as well as rework his deal beyond 2024. Also, I think the trade ask of a second-round pick plus another asset is currently too rich for both the Bills and Ravens.

Pittsburgh Steelers

While I believe the Steelers are interested in Adams, I think they are not on the list of teams that he favors going to. And there are the same issues with the rich price tag.

San Francisco 49ers

A potential nuclear option if Adams has nothing else available to him, but he would be nothing more than a rental for the 49ers for the rest of the season … and the Raiders would definitely have to eat some of Adams’ remaining 2024 salary, because the 49ers are trying to roll as much cap space as possible into 2025.

Dallas Cowboys

Can’t see it happening, and haven’t gotten an inkling the Cowboys want to pursue him. It’s more of a “brand” connection than anything. He’d only be a rental at best and Dallas needs as much cap as possible to roll into 2025 for extensions next offseason.

Washington Commanders

I could see this being a wild card in the bunch. The Commanders have something going with quarterback Jayden Daniels and they have the cap space to not only add Adams now, but also rework a solid deal that could keep him around for 2025 and maybe even 2026 if he’s still got the tread on his tires. This would all come down to whether the Commanders want to seize the momentum they have right now and see if they can speed up their timeline for getting to the postseason and developing Daniels. I still think the asking price turns Washington off.

Who has the desperation to make a Davante Adams trade?

This really might be what this comes down to. Especially if the Raiders drive a hard bargain and insist on getting a second-round pick plus an asset out of an Adams trade.

I keep staring at the Jets as being the team that is most likely to get into desperation mode and also have the connective tissue to make the best use of Adams immediately. But one AFC executive made an interesting point, too: Raiders general manager Tom Telesco has a fairly conservative track record — especially when it comes to trades. Even with Adams’ salaries being untenable the next two seasons, he might refuse to take what he sees as a low compensation offer for him.

"You never know, [Telesco] could just decide to ride it out and try to make the best of it, even if there's an issue [between Adams and head coach Antonio Pierce]," the executive said. "I doubt that's how this goes, but you never know when it's a GM who doesn't have a track record of a bunch of deals."