It was only a matter of time.
From the moment Cody Bellinger chose to pick up his $27.5 million player option for the 2025 season, rather than becoming a free agent, it became increasingly clear — somewhat ironically — that his clock in Chicago was ticking.
Bellinger’s choice to exercise the option wasn’t especially surprising, considering his modest performance in 2024. He had failed to replicate the star-level production he provided in his first year as a Cub in 2023, and thus it was unclear if he could command similar guaranteed dollars on the open market if he opted out.
But while Bellinger’s decision made sense for the individual, it immediately complicated Chicago’s offseason plans to improve the roster. With an emerging young slugger at first base in Michael Busch and an ascendent defensive wizard in center field in Pete Crow-Armstrong, the Cubs had seemingly found their foundational pieces at Bellinger’s two primary positions. And while Bellinger could in theory play right field, as he did for much of the second half of 2024, Seiya Suzuki — Chicago’s best hitter last season — expressed a preference to play more right field rather than be limited to DH duties. That dynamic seemed to put Bellinger in a precarious position entering 2025.
Far more relevant than Suzuki wanting to play the outfield, though, was Chicago's desire to rid its budget of Bellinger's hefty salary and meaningfully improve the roster through other means. That intention became crystal clear last week, when the Cubs acquired star right fielder Kyle Tucker from the Astros, bumping Suzuki back to DH and leaving Bellinger without a logical spot on the roster whatsoever.
Enter the New York Yankees. It's not just that a Cubs trade of Bellinger seemed certain to occur at some point this winter; it's also that the Yankees always seemed like the most logical destination. Sure enough, Bellinger is now a Yankee, with New York acquiring him from Chicago in exchange for 30-year-old right-handed pitcher Cody Poteet. As part of the deal, Chicago also sent $5 million to New York to help cover the remainder of Bellinger's contract. The majority of money owed to Bellinger, though — which could include an additional year if he picks up his $25 million option for 2026 next winter — will be the Yankees' responsibility, which was clearly Chicago's goal with this deal.
New York expressed interest in Bellinger early last offseason, when he was a much hotter commodity on the free-agent market, but the Yankees instead addressed their outfield needs by acquiring Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo via trade in December. That took one obvious suitor out of the mix for Bellinger and ultimately paved the way for him to return to the Cubs on a three-year, $80 million deal that didn’t come together until the end of February.
Fast-forward a year, and Bellinger once again emerged as a logical target for New York, this time via trade — especially once Soto made his monumental decision to depart the Yankees' outfield in favor of a historic contract with the Mets. Until Tuesday, the Yankees had responded to Soto's departure by adding impact on the mound, rather than attempting to replace Soto's contributions in the lineup. That first came in the form of left-hander Max Fried, who signed an eight-year, $218M contract — the largest ever for a southpaw — to join the Yankees' rotation. Brian Cashman and Co. followed with the acquisition of closer Devin Williams from Milwaukee to bolster the bullpen in a big way.
At some point, though, New York was going to need to start rebuilding its offense. It wasn't just Soto's massive presence the Yankees needed to replace, either: Left fielder Alex Verdugo, second baseman Gleyber Torres and first baseman Anthony Rizzo were all 2024 regulars who hit free agency, with none of them seemingly slated to return. There was no shortage of spots on the New York roster to address, but Bellinger's addition is a solid first step.
Bellinger's extensive experience at both first base and center field — a position New York was certain to move Aaron Judge off of once Soto left — made him a sensible target to improve New York's optionality on defense. Early reports indicate that Bellinger is expected to be the Yankees' primary center fielder, with first base a position New York still intends to address externally. There are far more free-agent candidates for the Yankees to target at first than there would be in center, so if moving Judge back to right is indeed a priority, it's not surprising that Bellinger would be considered strictly a center fielder as things stand.
While his early career superstardom and playing for two of baseball's highest-profile franchises has understandably made him one of the more recognizable players in the league, it's crucial to note that Bellinger does not offer nearly the likelihood of elite production that Fried or Williams do. Bellinger's recent reinvention of himself as a hitter traded the prodigious power from his early days in L.A. for a more high-contact approach in Chicago. That transformation yielded wonderful results in 2023 but a more pedestrian line this past season; his 109 wRC+ ranked 28th out of 49 qualified outfielders, while his .161 ISO ranked 34th. His power production should benefit from Yankee Stadium's short porch in right field, but his less-than-stellar quality of contact does not hint at a sudden resurgence to 30-plus homers.
Bellinger is a good player who seems to have established a high offensive floor with his new approach, but it’d be a massive stretch to project him as anything close to a Soto replacement on his own. In turn, there’s still ample work for the Yankees to do to get their lineup back to that of a legitimate contender. First base appears to be the priority in those efforts, but there’s still a long offseason ahead, and it’s clear that Bellinger’s versatility affords Cashman multiple paths forward with his next round of additions.
As with their deal for Williams, the Yankees managed to avoid parting with any premier prospects or pivotal pieces for the 2025 roster in acquiring Bellinger. Choosing instead to take on the majority of Bellinger’s contract is a demonstration of New York’s spending capabilities, and credit to them for operating as such.
On the flip side, there’s no hiding what the Cubs were trying to do here. Poteet was solid in Triple-A and across a few big-league cameos for New York in 2024, and he should help backfill some of the pitching depth lost by Chicago’s trading Hayden Wesneski to Houston in the Tucker deal. But this trade was about off-loading Bellinger’s salary, and that should be met with only one question for a big-market franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game since 2017: OK, now what?
Teams in Chicago’s position should be making trades such as this only if it enables them to make additional moves to improve their roster. Tucker was a titanic acquisition, certainly. He is clearly an upgrade over Bellinger, who no longer fit on the roster. But after several seasons of mediocrity, the Cubs must continue pushing forward. If clearing the $20 million-plus owed to Bellinger this season opens the door for additional spending in free agency or the acquisition of high-paid impact players via trade, that’s great news on the North Side. Until those moves occur, though, it’ll be difficult to grade this trade as anything other than what it is: a salary dump.
That said, a similar sentiment can be applied to both teams involved in this swap: This was a move that must be a small piece in a bigger puzzle of transactions, rather than a key move around which their offseasons are built.