MARLBORO, Mass. — You’ll pardon local malls for not celebrating the nineteenth anniversary of Cyber Monday; it more serves as a painful reminder of the brutal speed with which things can swing in the retail world.
The National Retail Federation estimates Americans will spend nearly $1 trillion this holiday season -- with 59% doing at least some shopping online. But the NRF predicts department stores will still get a decent share of the holiday pie, with 46% doing at least some shopping the old-fashioned way.
But there’s no reason to suggest the move towards online shopping won’t continue. And that will likely mean the continued deterioration of the mall scene in America -- a shopping fixture that’s drastically contracted over the last 40 years.
CapitolOne Shopping estimated 25,000 malls existed in the U.S. in 1986. By 2022, that number was down to around 7,600 -- a 70% drop.
“Many of them lost their appeal to younger generations,” said Lauren Beitelspacher, PhD, professor of marketing at Babson College. “So it’s just not as exciting to shop in them.”
And a dying mall is a dead mall walking.
“The worst thing that a mall can have is an empty space,” said Beitelspacher.
That’s not just because of the loss of revenue -- but because it sends a signal to consumers that something is not quite right. One faltering anchor store that can’t pay the rent may be enough to put an entire mall in jeopardy -- as uneasy shoppers take their business elsewhere, harming the outlets that remain.
As online retailers have pulled consumers away from malls, so have open-air malls, such as Legacy Place in Dedham or the Derby Street Shoppes in Hingham -- both of which tend to be packed -- and not just around the holidays.
These shopping centers conspicuously lack one thing that indoor malls have long depended on: major anchor stores.
“Outdoor malls don’t have huge, huge stores,” Beitelspacher said. “So even if a retailer that is a tenant of Legacy Place closes, another can go in there with minimal expense.”
That’s opposed to malls which, Beitelspacher points out, require a huge investment to construct -- and thus command huge rents. It’s no surprise, then, that a major mall hasn’t opened in the U.S. in 10 years.
And that saddens some consumers, who have rich memories connected to malls.
“I miss going to the mall,” said one consumer shopping at a Marshall’s on Route 20 in Marlborough. “It was fun with the kids and everything.”
“I miss the mall being full of people,” said another shopper. It just feels empty. I don’t really enjoy it.”
Malls are trying to get those people back in -- by offering experiences that range from arcades to, in the case of the Natick Mall, a pickleball facility. It’s unclear whether that strategy attracts significant numbers of shoppers.
Beitelspacher said there will always be a need for brick and mortar stores. “There’s a very human desire to touch something and feel it and to try it on,” she said.
But there’s also a desire for fast, easy shopping -- with exposure to a selection impossible to contain in four walls. And so malls continue their steady decline. But during the holidays they window dress the demise -- with lights and ornaments, a throne and a fake Santa -- who waits patiently for the children to come.
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