‘Nightmare scenario’: Hurricane Helene threatens ‘unsurvivable’ storm surge and vast damage

CRAWFORDVILLE, Fla. (AP) — Hurricane Helene could cause a “nightmare” scenario of catastrophic storm surge in northwestern Florida, officials warned Thursday as they urged residents to heed evacuation orders ahead of the enormous storm, which is expected to cause significant damage hundreds of miles inland across much of the southeastern U.S.

Helene was upgraded to a major Category 3 storm Thursday afternoon ahead of its expected evening landfall on Florida’s northwestern coast. Hurricane and flash flood warnings extend far beyond the coast up into south-central Georgia.

It was already starting to be felt Thursday afternoon, with tropical storm force winds hitting the state and water lapping over a road on the northern tip of Siesta Key near Sarasota. And rain has started battering places like Asheville, North Carolina, where a 7-inch (18-centimeter) deluge has raised flooding concerns.

With forecasters also warning of tornadoes, damaging winds, and mudslides, the governors of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia have all declared emergencies, as did President Joe Biden for several of the states. He is sending the head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency to Florida on Friday to view the damage.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Thursday morning that models suggest Helene will make landfall further east, lessening the chances for a direct hit on the capital city of Tallahassee, whose metro area has a population of around 395,000.

The shift has the storm aimed squarely at the sparsely-populated Big Bend area, home to fishing villages and vacation hideaways where Florida’s Panhandle and peninsula meet. Shuttered gas stations dotted the two-lane highway, their windows boarded up with plywood.

Philip Tooke, a commercial fisherman who took over the business his father founded near the region’s Apalachee Bay, plans to ride out this storm like he did during Hurricane Michael and the others – on his boat. “This is what pays my bills,” Tooke said of his boats. “If I lose that, I don’t have anything.”

Many, though, were heeding the mandatory evacuation orders that stretched from the Panhandle south along the Gulf Coast in low-lying areas around Tallahassee, Gainesville, Cedar Key, Lake City, Tampa and Sarasota.

Among them was Sharonda Davis, one of several gathered at a Tallahassee shelter worried their mobile homes wouldn’t withstand the winds. She said the hurricane’s size is “scarier than anything because it’s the aftermath that we’re going to have to face.”

Federal authorities were staging search-and-rescue teams as the National Weather Service office in Tallahassee forecast storm surges of up to 20 feet (6 meters) and warned they could be particularly “catastrophic and unsurvivable” in Apalachee Bay. It added that high winds and heavy rains also posed risks.

“Please, please, please take any evacuation orders seriously!” the office said, describing the surge scenario as “a nightmare.”

This stretch of Florida known as the Forgotten Coast has been largely spared by the widespread condo development and commercialization that dominates so many of Florida’s beach communities. The region is loved for its natural wonders — the vast stretches of salt marshes, tidal pools and barrier islands; the dwarf cypress trees of Tate’s Hell State Forest; and Wakulla Springs, considered one of the world’s largest and deepest freshwater springs.

Boston 25 Thursday Afternoon Weather

Anthony Godwin, 20, found one gas station outside Crawfordville where the tanks were still running Thursday morning to fill up before heading west toward his sister’s house in Pensacola.

“It’s a part of life. You live down here, you run the risk of losing everything to a bad storm,” said Godwin, who lives about a half-mile (800 meters) from the water in the coastal town of Panacea. During Hurricane Michael in 2018, Godwin said the water came up to the end of the driveway of his family’s home.

Along Florida’s Gulf Coast, school districts and multiple universities have canceled classes. Airports in Tampa, Tallahassee and Clearwater were closed Thursday, while cancellations were widespread elsewhere in the state and beyond.

Helene was about 195 miles (315 kilometers) southwest of Tampa on Thursday afternoon and moving north-northeast at 16 mph (26 kph) with top sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph).

While Helene will likely weaken as it moves inland, damaging winds were expected to extend to the southern Appalachian Mountains, where landslides were possible, forecasters said. The center posted lesser tropical storm warnings as far north as North Carolina, and warned that much of the region could experience prolonged power outages and flooding.

Helene had swamped parts of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, flooding streets and toppling trees as it passed offshore and brushed the resort city of Cancun.

The storm formed Tuesday in the Caribbean Sea. In western Cuba, Helene knocked out power to more than 200,000 homes and businesses as it brushed past the island.

Helene is forecast to be one of the largest storms in breadth in years to hit the region, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. He said since 1988, only three Gulf hurricanes were bigger than Helene’s predicted size: 2017′s Irma, 2005′s Wilma and 1995′s Opal.

Areas 100 miles (160 kilometers) north of the Georgia-Florida line can expect hurricane conditions. More than half of Georgia’s public school districts and several universities canceled classes. The state has opened its parks to evacuees, and their pets, including horses

For Atlanta, Helene could be the worst strike on a major Southern inland city in 35 years, said University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd.

More than 200 miles (320 kilometers) to the south, some businesses in the inland city of Valdosta, Georgia, closed because of the hurricane warning, including the local Walmart.

“We know the Lord’s in control,” said 67-year-old Margaret Freenman, when she found pallets stacked high blocking the store’s entrances after showing up to buy snacks with her two grandchildren. “He’s got the last say.”

Helene is the eighth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season this year because of record-warm ocean temperatures.

In further storm activity, Tropical Storm Isaac formed Wednesday in the Atlantic and was expected to strengthen as it moves eastward across the open ocean, possibly becoming a hurricane by the end of the week, forecasters said. Officials said its swells and winds could affect parts of Bermuda and eventually the Azores by the weekend.

In the Pacific, former Hurricane John reformed Wednesday as a tropical storm and strengthened Thursday morning back into a hurricane as it threatened areas of Mexico’s western coast with flash flooding and mudslides. Mexico President Andrés Manuel López Obrador raised John’s death toll to five Thursday as the communities along the country’s Pacific coast prepared for the storm to make a second landfall.

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Hurricane Helene preps CLEARWATER, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 25: Workers place plywood over the windows of a business before the arrival of Hurricane Helene on September 25, 2024, in Clearwater, Florida. Hurricane Helene is forecast to become a major hurricane, bringing the potential for deadly storm surges, flooding rain, and destructive hurricane-force winds along parts of the Florida West Coast. Helene is expected to make landfall in Florida on Thursday. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images) (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

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