Big Harris win in NH could affect tight governor’s race

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Immigration, climate change, foreign aid and taxes: those are some of the issues New Hampshire voters care about two weeks before the election. And while it is no longer considered a battleground state, New Hampshire is usually not a blow-out state, either.

The last time a presidential candidate won in New Hampshire with a double-digit margin was in 1988, when George H.W. Bush defeated Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis by nearly two to one.

But this is the sixth presidential election cycle in a row that New Hampshire is expected to go to the Democrats.

“Our polling has consistently shown Kamala Harris at about seven to eight points up over Donald Trump,” said Neil Levesque, Director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College. “Harris has had a consistent lead in the state. I think abortion is a big issue here.”

Levesque said the Democratic Party has done a good job of converting New Hampshire into one of its more reliable bastions — a notion that would seem almost absurd given the state’s past electoral history. In 1932, New Hampshire voters chose Herbert Hoover over FDR. Thomas Dewey beat Harry Truman here in 1948. Not even John F. Kennedy Jr. could score a win in 1960 over Richard M. Nixon.

But times — and political tastes — have drastically changed in New Hampshire.

Both its U.S. Senators are Democrats (and both are women) — and Democrats also hold both congressional seats. The governorship is another story. Since 2016, Republican Chris Sununu has held the seat. In November, voters will choose either former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig, a Democrat, to succeed him — or Republican Kelly Ayotte, a former U.S. Senator.

Levesque said Ayotte holds the edge at the moment, with polling showing her with a consistent, three-point lead. But that could disappear, he suggested, if Kamala Harris performs better than expected.

“If Harris really polls well here, it’s tougher for the Republican candidate to win,” Levesque said.

Upcoming debate performances could become a factor, too, he added.

“Anything can happen,” said Levesque. “And we look for those pivot points to see where voters may change their minds.”

Boston 25 spoke with several first-time voters on the campus of Saint Anselm College and found nearly all of them concerned about one thing: Mother Earth.

“I think global warming and climate change is one of the biggest issues,” said Mary Panciocco, who is studying International Relations. Abby O’Connell, a politics major, agreed and said her choice on the environmental issue is Kamala Harris.

“I think we should protect the planet we live on,” said John Doyle, a first-time voter from Weymouth, Massachusetts. He, however, is undecided between Harris and Donald Trump. Parker Gleckman hasn’t made his decision yet, either. “I’m kind of torn between the two political candidates at the moment,” he said. “I’m not really sure who I’m going to vote for.”

Gleckman said that’s in part because he’s not thrilled with either major-party candidate.

At The Red Arrow Diner in downtown Manchester, talking politics over lunch is a pastime. Susan Amlaw, a disabled veteran, wouldn’t reveal her choice for president but said she’s concerned Washington isn’t prioritizing the needs of Americans.

“They’re sending money overseas,” she said. “But we’re not getting any money here for the people (flooded out) down in North Carolina and Georgia and we need to help them.

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