COVID-19′s potential to mutate could cause problems for vaccine development

BOSTON — Microsoft founder Bill Gates says he is willing to spend billions to help researchers find an effective COVID-19 vaccine. But standing in the way of that goal is something money can't change: the virus' will to survive.

Some thought New York turned a corner on COVID-19, but on Tuesday the state announced its highest daily death total yet from the coronavirus as 731 people died.

“The United States is the current leader in cases and deaths, and that is going to continue, [as] far as we can see, for a while,” said Dr. Samuel Bogoch of Replikins Ltd.

Dr. Bogoch, a former Boston University professor, runs Replikins, a firm that tracks epidemics by monitoring genetic activity within viruses and other pathogens. Boston 25 News began talking with him just after Massachusetts saw its first case of COVID-19 in February.

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“We have had in previous epidemics of this sort, changes which were quite sudden,” Dr. Bogoch said. “That is a hoped-for event. But there’s no evidence it’s coming.”

Stay at home orders and social distancing may very well flatten the curve in some states, but Dr. Bogoch says that's not going to stop COVID-19.

“Our data shows no change in the forward thrust,” he said. “And very serious implications for the coming months.”

What Replikins data also shows: the virus is mutating.

“Mutation means you change the gene of the infecting agent,” Dr. Bogoch said.

Those changes allow the virus to perpetuate, possibly becoming better at creating infections.

It isn’t a surprise that COVID-19 is mutating, it’s pretty much what researchers expected. The key question for those developing vaccines against the virus is how extensively it might mutate before they can get a product to market.

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Because a vaccine based on a COVID-19 that 'was' could be a dud.

“When it’s released several months from now or a year or 19 months from now, [it] maybe diminished in its activity or totally ineffective,” Dr. Bogoch said.

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